Expected fantasy points

What an average player would have scored with the same workload. Built from every carry and target — where the ball was snapped, how far it travelled, and whether it was thrown into the end zone. Talent and luck are stripped out; only opportunity remains.

 ·  players at 5.0 XFP/G or better  ·  PPR, rushing and receiving only  ·  model fit on

EZ tgt counts throws aimed into the end zone, which are touchdowns whenever they are caught. Inside 10 counts carries and targets snapped within ten yards of the goal line. Points are actual rushing and receiving PPR, so return scores are not included on either side. Labelled dots are the ten players whose production is furthest from their workload.